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07/17/2010 - Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neither a stiff neck nor scorching heat could stop Kevin Harvick from winning Saturday's 200-mile Camping World Truck Series race with a dominating performance at Gateway International Raceway.
The CampingWorld.com 200 at Gateway was scheduled for Friday night, but a lengthy power outage around the 1.25-mile track forced postponement until the following day.
Harvick, who was complaining of a stiff neck before the start of the race, started on the pole and led 143 of 160 laps. He held a sizeable lead before the fifth and final caution came with 36 laps remaining. When the race resumed, Harvick quickly pulled away from the field and then easily beat his fellow Sprint Cup series competitor Brad Keselowski by 5.2 seconds for his third victory of the season and the ninth of his truck career.
"Physically, I feel okay," Harvick said. "I'm just so nervous about moving somewhere I shouldn't and catching my neck. It felt a lot better the hotter it got in [the truck], so that was a good thing."
Harvick and Keselowski are among several drivers who ran in the truck race and are scheduled to compete in tonight's 250-mile Nationwide Series event here.
Temperatures during the truck race soared to around 95 degrees, with the heat index well over 100 degrees.
"I feel good, but I'm just a little hot and sweaty," second-place finisher Keselowski said. "I'll go back to the bus, take a nice shower and get ready for the Nationwide race tonight. I think we have even a better car over there than we had a truck over here. This truck was pretty good."
Johnny Sauter finished third, while Todd Bodine, the series points leader, took the fourth spot. Matt Crafton completed the top-five.
Timothy Peters, rookie Austin Dillon, who won last week at Iowa, Aric Almirola, Brian Ickler and Mike Skinner, last year's race winner at Gateway, finished sixth through 10th, respectively.
Bodine padded his lead to 101 points over Almirola.
Ron Hornaday Jr. finished a disappointing 26th. Hornaday was running in the second spot in the early going, but suffered a mechanical problem and eventually fell 10 laps down. The four-time defending series champion has yet to win a race this season after posting six victories, including a record five races in a row, during his 2009 title season.
On lap 80, Ricky Carmichael and Jeffrey Earnhardt were involved in a hard crash. Mike Skinner bumped Carmichael and turned him around into the wall. As his truck then slid down the track, Earnhardt could not avoid the incident, as slammed into the rear of Carmichael's truck. Both drivers were not injured during the incident.
<< Phillies use four-run ninth to beat Cubs
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ross Gload scored the go-ahead run on a
wild pitch in a wild four-run, two-out rally in the ninth inning that
carried the Phillies to a 4-1 comeback win over Chicago in third meeting of
a four-
<< Polanco contributes big hit in return for Phils
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco made a huge impact Saturday
in his return to the lineup with the Philadelphia Phillies.
The veteran infielder, who was activated off the 15-day disabled list prior
to the game, singled
<< D.C. fails to pick up option on Emilio
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United and striker Luciano Emilio
have parted ways after a brief three-month reunion as United opted not to pick
up its option on the former Major League Soccer MVP.
Emilio returned to the team i
<< Tigers call up Porcello to start back end of DH
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have recalled right-
hander Rick Porcello from Triple-A Toledo to start the second game of a
doubleheader with the Indians Saturday.
Porcello was demoted on June 20 after pi
Yankees put Marte on DL with inflamed shoulder >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees placed left-hander
Damaso Marte on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with an inflamed left
shoulder.
Fellow southpaw Boone Logan was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-
Yankees' Burnett leaves with undisclosed injury >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett left
Saturday's game against Tampa Bay with an undisclosed injury.
Burnett allowed an RBI single to Carlos Pena in the third inning and was
immediately visited
Le Toux sinks Toronto with late PK >>
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sebastien Le Toux's penalty kick in the 94th
minute helped the Philadelphia Union claim a dramatic 2-1 win over Toronto FC
at PPL Park on Saturday.
Toronto equalized nine minutes from time through Chad Bar
Red Sox activate Delcarmen among other moves >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox activated pitcher Manny
Delcarmen from the 15-day disabled list among a host of moves made Saturday.
Delcarmen last pitched on June 30 and had been on the DL with a right forearm
strain
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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