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12/23/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Politics is all about ideology these days and it seems like the average politician doesn't understand there is more than one way to look at a given situation.
That my way or the highway approach that dots both sides of the aisle in Washington flies in the face of common sense. After all, more often than not, there is more than one way to solve a problem.
In the NBA there are two schools of thought when looking over a condensed 66- game, lockout fueled schedule that is very heavy on back-to-back games and occasionally even features some back-to-back-to-backs.
In my mind, any time you play five times a week, it's going to favor the young legs and not a thirtysomething that's been through the wars time and time again.
Others assume lopping 16 games off the sked and the 560-to-600 minutes of wear and tear that goes along with it will help the older players like Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan, theoretically making them fresher for a possible postseason run.
Whatever you believe, one thing is certain -- coaching is going to be more important than ever this season.
How is Doc Rivers going to handle Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in Beantown? How many minutes will Popovich feel comfortable giving Duncan if he sees a back-to-back looming?
Already Doug Collins in Philly, who has a rather young team, has indicated that anyone who isn't "right" will sit when the team practices.
Getting to the finish line this season isn't just about the playoffs -- it's all about postseason health. A .600 winning percentage might be an admirable goal but so is sacrificing a few wins and perhaps a spot or two in the seeding if that means your veterans haven't had to start their own MASH unit.
Right now a mini-offseason is slowly fading to the rear-view mirror and the light of real basketball is finally shining at the end of the tunnel, with the locomotive bearing down.
The Association kicks off for real on Christmas Day with a five-game slate headlined by a rematch of the NBA Finals with the Heat and LeBron James visiting Dirk Nowitzki and the defending world champion Dallas Mavericks.
The power players haven't shifted all that much with Miami again playing the role of favorites and Dallas expected back as a serious contender. Last year's two top teams in the regular season, Chicago and San Antonio remain part of the championship conversation while the continued development of Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City likely means the Thunder will make a serious push for their first title in OKC.
If you are looking for improvement, start in New York where the Knicks and their impressive front line of Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler will attempt to join the heavyweights in the East.
As for the personal hardware. I see big things on the horizon for Cavs rookie Kyrie Irving and you can look for Durant to be the thorn in a certain Rose during the race for the NBA's Most Valuable Player award.
In deference to Denny Green, I'm not ready to "crown" anyone just yet but gazing into one's crystal ball before things start is almost a necessary evil.
So, here goes nothing.
A look at the 2011-12 NBA season...
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Chicago (Central Division champion); 2. Miami (Southeast); 3. Boston (Atlantic); 4. New York; 5. Orlando; 6. Indiana; 7. Atlanta; 8. Philadelphia
EAST CHAMPION: Chicago
If Rip Hamilton has anything left in the tank Chicago filled its biggest need while Miami has largely stayed stagnant around the Big Three. Of course, for as much criticism James received for disappearing late in the NBA Finals last season, let's remember that he was brilliant in the postseason up until that point.
It was the Bulls and Rose that were a disappointment out of the box, letting a flawed Indiana team hang around in most games and struggling with Jeff Teague and Atlanta before finally getting blitzed by the Heat. So, while everyone talks about James needing to step up when it counts, the same is true for Rose and Chicago.
That said, with Hamilton on board, and three defensive stoppers in the frontcourt, Joakim Noah, Omer Asik and Taj Gibson, the Bulls are by far the most balanced team in the East.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oklahoma City (Northwest); 2. Dallas (Southwest); 3. San Antonio; 4. LA Clippers (Pacific); 5. Memphis; 6. LA Lakers; 7. Portland; 8. Denver
WEST CHAMPION: Oklahoma City
Expect most of the conventional powers in the Western Conference to take a step back this season with the Lakers looking especially vulnerable. The Lakers have a new coach and no Lamar Odom. Meanwhile, personal problems, injuries and Father Time seem to be stalking Kobe Bryant. That has many wondering, including yours truly, if the Lakers are even the best team in Hollywood right now.
Meanwhile, the reigning world champion Mavericks seems to have stepped 'Back to the Future by bringing in Odom and high-scoring swingman Vince Carter. Remember this is a club that often won 50-plus games and came up short in the postseason until they acquired a few tough-minded defensive players like Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson. On paper the Mavs traded the defense that got them over the hump for more firepower, a scenario that's likely to result in an all too familiar denouement in the Metroplex -- an excellent regular season team that doesn't have the mettle to navigate the treacherous postseason waters.
In South Texas many prognosticators envision an aging club on the decline when talking about the 2011-12 version of the Spurs. That might be a little harsh since San Antonio is coming off a Western Conference-best 61-21 season. But, the window is certainly closing on the Spurs' chances to win another crown in the Tim Duncan-era. To do so the club must find ways to integrate some new pieces alongside their established All-Star veterans.
That leaves Durant and the Thunder, who sport the best finishing five in the business thanks to the ascending James Harden. If Russell Westbrook can temper the turnovers and Kendrick Perkins stays in shape throughout the season, OKC is ready to get over the hump.
NBA FINALS CHAMPION: Oklahoma City
You look to finishers in the finals. Sure, James is a better all-around basketball player than Nowitzki but the German star proved to be the best closer west of Mariano Rivera back in June and the Mavs are champs. Same will hold true this year when the Bulls meet the Thunder. You can certainly make a solid argument that the reigning MVP Rose is a better player but who do you want to give the dagger to in the final minutes of a close contest, a Rose or a Durant-ula?
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER - Durant, Oklahoma City
Rose took the award from James last season and Bryant is slipping a bit making things more interesting. "The King" is always the favorite but voters like variety, giving Durant a leg up this year. Don't sleep on Blake Griffin either now that Chris Paul will be feeding him on a daily basis.
Honorable Mention: James, Miami; Rose, Chicago; Griffin, LA Clippers; Dwight Howard, Orlando.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
This award is usually all about opportunity and no freshman should get more minutes than Irving, who will be handed the keys to the Cavs franchise.
Honorable Mention: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota; Derrick Williams, Minnesota
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Luc Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee
Make no mistake, Howard is going to win it again since the voters seem enamored by blocked shots and intimidating interior defense, something that certainly describes Superman. However, I prefer a lock-down perimeter defender for this award and no one is better than Mbah a Moute, a versatile guy that can check a shooting guard as well as a power forward.
Honorable Mention: Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia; Tony Allen, Memphis; Chandler, New York.
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR - Jason Terry, Dallas
It's the usual suspects here, although some have new addresses. San Antonio's Manu Ginobili, Odom, Portland's Jamal Crawford and Terry are all possible winners but I suspect Ginobili and Odom could spend too much time in their respective starting lineups. Rick Carlisle loves Terry's offense off the bench and will keep him there.
Honorable Mention: Ginobili, San Antonio; Odom, Dallas; Crawford, Portland; Harden, Oklahoma City; Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia.
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER - Harden, Oklahoma City
Harden really came on in the 2011 playoffs as both a facilitator and scorer. His presence on the floor next to Durant and Westbrook makes OKC as tough an out that there is in basketball these days. A trio of emerging point guards should also be in the mix. Washington's dynamic John Wall, Philly's steady Jrue Holiday and undersized Nuggets' blur Ty Lawson.
Honorable Mention: Wall, Washington; Holiday, Philadelphia; Eric Gordon, New Orleans; Lawson, Denver.
COACH OF THE YEAR - Vinny Del Negro, LA Clippers.
The former point guard is rarely mentioned when people talk about the NBA's best coaches but the Clippers have been the league's laughing stock for so long that this expected turnaround will be big news across the country on a daily basis.
Honorable Mention: Scott Brooks, Oklahoma City; Frank Vogel, Indiana.
ASSISTANT COACH OF THE YEAR - Mike Budenholzer, San Antonio
You might as well make this the Budenholzer achievement award until this guy gets a head coaching gig. The Spurs assistant has been ready to be an NBA head coach for at least three years now and is the master of "last two-minutes" edit. Budenholzer got his start as a video editor and is astute at pointing out the oppositions's deficiencies.
Honorable Mention: Michael Curry, Philadelphia, Mike Longabardi, Boston.
EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR: Neal Olshey, LA Clippers
Some might argue that David Stern is the one responsible for steering Paul to the Clippers but the team's VP of Basketball operations is sure to get the credit when the Clips take the Pacific Division crown.
Honorable Mention: Donn Nelson, Dallas
MOST UNDERRATED ACQUISITION: Brandon Bass, Boston
With Shaquille O'Neal gone and the aging Jermaine O'Neal as the only true center left on the roster, Rivers will need to mix and match minutes in the pivot, often going with the undersized and underrated ex-Magic forward.
Honorable Mention: Chandler, New York; Butler, LA Clippers.
MOST IMPROVED TEAM: LA Clippers
With Paul, Butler and Chauncey Billups joining Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in L.A., it would be a major surprise if the Clippers didn't challenge for a top- four seed out West.
Honorable Mention: Indiana, Milwaukee
BEST INTERNATIONAL PLAYER: Nowitzki, Dallas
Nowitzki was unquestionably the best player in the postseason last year and swiped the mantle of best closer as well. His rainbow fadeaway is unstoppable at times and made Charles Barkley gush "Nobody can guard that guy." His coach, Rick Carlisle, even called him one of the 10 greatest players ever. With his terrific shooting range and basketball smarts, the bread and butter of Nowitzki's game has always been the ability to use his 7-foot, 245-pound frame to overmatch defenders. Never a top-tier on-ball defender. Nowitzki has also developed into a solid help defender and is much tougher these days.
Honorable Mention: Pau Gasol, LA Lakers; Ginobili, San Antonio.
<< Felipe signs new deal with Flamengo
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Flamengo announced on Friday that
the club has signed goalkeeper Felipe to a new four-year contract.
The former Corinthians man put together an impressive first campaign with
Flamengo, starti
<< Ballard, Umenyiora ruled out for Giants
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Giants tight end Jake Ballard,
defensive end Osi Umenyiora and linebacker Mark Herzlich have all been ruled
out for Saturday's game against the Jets.
Ballard (knee) has caught 38 passes for
<< Cubs, Reds swap lefties
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs on Friday traded left-handed
reliever Sean Marshall to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for young southpaw
Travis Wood.
The Cubs also acquired outfielder Dave Sappelt and minor leaguer
<< Ravens K Cundiff doubtful
Owings Mills, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff is
doubtful for Saturday's game against the Cleveland Browns with a left calf
injury.
Baltimore prepared for Cundiff's possible absence by brining in vete
Celtic, Rangers have thoughts on Old Firm derby >>
Paisley, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celtic and Rangers continue their battle
for Scottish Premier League supremacy Saturday, but the focus has already been
shifted toward their post-Christmas Old Firm derby.
Rangers enters the weekend with
The 'Boys' are back in town with win >>
Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Boys At Tosconova
made it two straight wins with a solid victory Friday at Gulfstream Park. The
three-year-old colt easily defeated four challengers in a one-mile main track
effort.
Packers DL Pickett to miss another game >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Green Bay Packers defensive lineman Ryan
Pickett will miss his second straight game because of a concussion.
Wide receiver Greg Jennings and tackle Bryan Bulaga have also been ruled out
for Sunday nig
Cowboys RB Jones questionable >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dallas Cowboys running back Felix Jones is
listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles
with a hamstring injury.
Jones, who missed practice all week with the injury, has
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
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