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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 57th-annual Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament is on tap this week from the Greensboro Coliseum and will run from opening round action on Thursday, March 11th through the championship game on Sunday, March 14th.
This was not a usual season throughout the ACC, as the biggest surprise may not be who won the regular-season crown, but rather, how far the mighty have fallen. The defending national champion North Carolina Tar Heels were going to face a tough challenge in maintaining their status atop the conference, but no one could have foreseen the team's total collapse. When all was said and done though, it turned into a two-horse race, with Duke and Maryland sharing the conference title with solid 13-3 league ledgers.
The Blue Devils earned the top-seed in the tournament, but it really shouldn't effect the Terrapins all that much, as like the regular season, the tournament looks to follow suit with two legitimate candidates and the rest playing catchup. Joining Duke and Maryland with first-round byes are three-seeded Florida State and fourth-seeded Virginia Tech. The rest of the field will play in opening round action on Thursday.
The tournament will open up with ninth-seeded Virginia taking on eighth-seeded Boston College. Tony Bennett's Cavaliers finished one game under .500 overall at 14-15 and won just five conference games in his first season at the helm. To make matters worse, Virginia lost nine straight games to close out the regular season. The likelihood of a strong run in this event isn't very good, especially with the recent suspension of sophomore guard Sylven Landesberg, who finished fifth in the conference in scoring at 17.3 ppg and earned All-ACC Second-Team honors. Landesberg will miss the remainder of the season for academic reasons. The team has won just one ACC Tournament title and that came all the way back in 1976 and ending that drought isn't likely. Al Skinner's Eagles are still relatively new to this event and have yet to win a tourney title in the ACC with a 5-4 mark all-time. Boston College is also fighting an uphill battle coming into the postseason at 15-15 overall and a 6-10 mark in league play. The team did finish with three wins in its last five games, including a 68-55 decision over the Cavaliers a week ago. The team has several players averaging double-digits in points, none more important than All-ACC Third-Team member Joe Trapani (14.6 ppg).
The second opening-round matchup features fifth-seeded Wake Forest against 12th-seeded Miami-Florida. Dino Gaudio's Demon Deacons showed flashes of brilliance this season, just not enough consistency. Wake was ranked in the top-25 this year and had some quality wins over the likes of Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier and Maryland en route to 19 total victories. Conference play resulted in a 9-7 mark, tied with Clemson for fifth place. An exciting team with an outside chance at making a run to the finals of this event, Wake relies on the low post game of sophomore forward Al-Farouq Aminu to fuel its attack. Aminu led the conference in rebounding (10.8 rpg) and averaged 15.9 ppg, earning All-ACC Second-Team honors. Point guard Ishmael Smith (13.3 ppg, 6.0 apg) joined Aminu on the all-conference Second-Team. Wake Forest has four tournament titles to its name, with the last coming in 1996. Frank Haith's Hurricanes had plenty of problems this year in league play finishing in last place at 4-12. That doesn't sum up this team though, as Miami won 18 games in the regular season, and ran flawless through the non-conference slate. However, it won't be easy to erase five losses in the last six games and start anew in tournament play. Miami is one of five schools to have never won an ACC Tournament crown. These two teams split a pair of meetings this year, each winning on its home floor.
Next on the docket in the opening round is seventh-seeded Georgia Tech against 10th-seeded North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets are an extremely young team, but Paul Hewitt's squad showed glimpses of its great potential, hovering in and around the top-25 for a good portion of the second half of the season. Tech needs just one more victory to reach the 20-win plateau, but a 7-9 in- conference record doesn't exactly have this team brimming with confidence right now. The strength of the Yellow Jackets resides in the frontcourt in the form of All-ACC Third Teamer Gani Lawal (13.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and All-ACC Freshman Team member Derrick Favors (11.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg). The Yellow Jackets haven't won the ACC Tournament since 1993, although the team did make a final appearance in 2005. The defending national champions fell off the face of the ACC world this season and although the Tar Heels have won 17 tournament titles, tied with Duke, it would take a miracle to earn number 18 this season. With a mass exodus from last year's title team, coupled with key injuries this season, UNC simply fell flat. A 16-15 overall mark is certainly not up to the standards set in Chapel Hill and a 5-11 league mark is unheard of. The loss of talented forward Ed Davis to a broken wrist certainly didn't help matters. Roy William's Tar Heels, who had a pair of three-game losing streaks in-conference and another four-game slide, failed to land a player on any of the all- conference squads for the first time in ACC history. Georgia Tech swept the regular-season series with North Carolina.
The final game of the opening round pits sixth-seeded Clemson against 11th- seeded NC State. Oliver Purnell's Tigers were in and out of the top-25 this season, finishing 21-9 overall and 9-7 in ACC action. At times, Clemson looked like a conference contender, but at other times, the team simply looked mediocre. Still, with wins in six of the last nine games to close out the year, a strong run in this tournament would not be a shock, despite a less than stellar 16-56 all-time mark in this event. A dangerous offensive team, Clemson looks to veteran forward Trevor Booker to lead the way. Booker was a First-Team All-ACC selection and was also named to the All-Defensive Team, averaging 15.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Sidney Lowe's Wolfpack resided around the bottom of the league standings for much of the season, but finished off at 17-14 overall and 5-11 in-conference, thanks to timely wins in three of the last four games. Junior forward Tracy Smith was clearly the catalyst for the squad, earning All-ACC Second-Team honors, averaging 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per outing. NC State has a rich tradition in this event, with 10 tournament titles and a 61-46 all-time record, but the last championship came back in 1987. Clemson won the only meeting between these two teams in the regular season, 73-70.
The Blue Devils will await the Virginia/Boston College winner in quarterfinal action on Friday. Mike Krzyzewski's squad won a conference-best 26 games in the regular season, but failed to nail down the outright conference crown with a loss last week to Maryland, ending an eight-game win streak. Still, the team took care of business in a rout of rival North Carolina in the regular-season finale to earn a share of the title and top overall seed. Duke, which won the tournament last season, is tied with North Carolina for most tournament titles with 17, as well as tournament victories with 84. This year's squad features a trio of All-ACC performers, including two First-Team members in point guard Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 5.2 apg) and forward Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg. 6.8 rpg). Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg) is another outstanding scoring option, earning Second- Team status as a result.
The Terrapins picked up the second seed, despite sharing the regular-season crown. All-ACC First-Team star Greivis Vasquez was the main reason why. The senior guard was arguably the ACC's best court general, ranking second in the league in scoring (19.6 ppg) and first in assists (6.3 apg). Gary William's Terrapins will take on the North Carolina/Georgia Tech winner in the quarterfinals. No team comes into the postseason any hotter, as Maryland brings a seven-game win streak with it to Greensboro, including huge wins over Duke and Virginia Tech over the last two weeks.
Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles picked up the three-seed and an opening-round bye with a solid 10-6 league mark. More impressive was FSU's 22-8 overall mark. It didn't look good for the Seminoles in mid-February, but the team ran off five wins in its last six games to earn the bye. FSU is one of those teams without a tournament title and is just 9-18 all-time in this event. The Seminoles will get the winner of the NC State/Clemson game in the quarterfinals and will no doubt attempt to enforce their will defensively on whoever they are playing. Solomon Alabi (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 70 blocks) and Chris Singleton (10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 69 steals) earned All-ACC Third-Team recognition for their efforts this year and both were named to the All-Defensive Team as well.
The fourth and final bye went to Seth Greenberg's Hokies. Virginia Tech had a run in February that had the team on the verge of breaking into the top-25, but three straight losses to Duke, Boston College and Maryland left the team on the outside looking in. Still, Tech finished strong with back-to-back wins to close out the regular season and finished 10-6 in-conference and 23-7 overall. The Hokies await the winner of the Miami-Florida/Wake Forest opening round matchup. An explosive team, Virginia Tech has an outside shot at making a run to the finals. If so, expect All-ACC First-Teamer Malcolm Delaney to play a big part. The junior guard led the league in scoring this season, pouring in almost 21 points per game (20.9). Fellow juniors Dorenzo Hudson (Third-Team member at 14.4 ppg) and Jeff Allen (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg) provide plenty of support. Virginia Tech is just 3-5 all-time in this event.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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